{"F": {"ts_code": "600519.SH", "name": "贵州茅台", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010827", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1330.0, "pe_ttm": 20.4166, "pb": 6.6173, "dv_ttm": 3.9115, "total_mv": 166260852.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [91.4, 91.5, 91.9, 92.0, 91.9, 91.2], "rev_series": [949.2, 1061.9, 1241.0, 1476.9, 1709.0, 1688.4], "np_series": [467.0, 524.6, 627.2, 747.3, 862.3, 823.2], "roe_series": [31.4, 29.9, 32.4, 36.2, 38.4, 34.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1701.5, "np_ttm": 814.3, "ocf_ttm": 1190.9, "fcf_ttm": 1167.3, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 91.9, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 1.0, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 52.5, "roe_median": 34.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.0, "fix_assets": 247.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.62, "capex_dep": 1.2, "interest_debt": 256.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 15.2, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 115.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 9.5, "rev_yoy": 1.5, "np_yoy": -2.0, "np_vol": 8.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 45, "fwd_pe": 19.7, "fwd_pe2": 18.6, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 3.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["茅台酒", 73.0], ["其他酒系列", 12.0], ["其他系列酒", 12.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.6, "ret_prev2_year": -9.3, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 14.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": 6.3, "ret_120": -4.0, "ret_250": -7.5, "mdd_250": -23.5, "vol_250": 22.6, "pos_52w": 87.1}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 89, "hard": 13, "bondness": 68}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 8%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 91.9%,稳定度 100%、ROE 近 5 年中位 34.5%。", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%,分红率 115%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 91.9%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 91.9%,稳定度 100%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.4 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 6% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "贵州茅台:PE 比行业中位低 5.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.1个百分点。"]}}