{"F": {"ts_code": "600516.SH", "name": "方大炭素", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "冶钢辅料", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020830", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.21, "pe_ttm": 100.1427, "pb": 1.2658, "dv_ttm": 0.1332, "total_mv": 2097530.5784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 33.5, 25.9, 19.0, 14.0, 12.2], "rev_series": [35.4, 46.5, 53.2, 51.3, 38.7, 35.3], "np_series": [5.5, 10.8, 8.4, 4.2, 1.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [3.6, 7.1, 5.5, 2.5, 1.1, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.1, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.3, "fix_assets": 34.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 17.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 16.5, "debt_mv": 8.1, "payout": 70.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -12.8, "np_cagr3": -52.0, "rev_yoy": 16.6, "np_yoy": 213.5, "np_vol": 58.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 260.5, "fwd_pe2": 104.2, "fwd_g1": -62.0, "fwd_g2": 150.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钢用炭素制品", 42.0], ["非钢用新材料", 5.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.3, "ret_prev2_year": -7.3, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 31.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -9.1, "ret_120": -22.8, "ret_250": 4.8, "mdd_250": -30.0, "vol_250": 49.6, "pos_52w": 73.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 36, "hard": 26, "bondness": 60}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 100.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 260.5 倍,次年 104.2 倍,PEG 1.74。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 100.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -9% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "方大炭素:PE 比行业中位高 69.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.6个百分点。"]}}