{"F": {"ts_code": "600512.SH", "name": "腾达建设", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.08, "pe_ttm": 417.5003, "pb": 0.5348, "dv_ttm": 0.4808, "total_mv": 330180.2816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 19.4, 13.0, 10.2, 11.5, 11.6], "rev_series": [59.0, 69.3, 58.4, 40.6, 37.2, 48.5], "np_series": [6.1, 8.2, 0.2, 0.5, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [12.2, 14.5, 0.3, 0.8, 0.4, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -7.3, "ocf_yield": -5.4, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.2, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.53, "capex_dep": 0.41, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 42.0, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.0, "np_cagr3": 23.0, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -21.1, "np_vol": 95.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["工程施工收入", 32.0], ["工程施工", 32.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 10.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -19.4, "ret_250": -14.4, "mdd_250": -30.2, "vol_250": 28.4, "pos_52w": 77.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 7, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 417.5 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.3%(经营现金流/市值 -5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.41 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 417.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "腾达建设:PE 比行业中位高 405.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}