{"F": {"ts_code": "600509.SH", "name": "天富能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.45, "pe_ttm": 44.9835, "pb": 1.2886, "dv_ttm": 1.1275, "total_mv": 1023926.063, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.5, 13.0, 9.2, 16.7, 16.8, 21.2], "rev_series": [49.0, 70.7, 81.4, 95.1, 92.7, 83.8], "np_series": [0.5, -0.4, -2.0, 4.3, 2.1, 2.3], "roe_series": [0.8, -0.8, -3.4, 6.6, 2.9, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 84.7, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 23.8, "fcf_ttm": 14.1, "fcf_yield": 13.8, "ocf_yield": 23.3, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -13.3, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 71.7, "fix_assets": 205.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.29, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 124.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 61.4, "debt_mv": 121.4, "payout": 50.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": -0.8, "np_vol": 220.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 16.2, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": 178.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电", 39.0], ["供电", 39.0], ["天然气", 6.0], ["热", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.1, "ret_prev2_year": 1.9, "ret_ytd": -8.9, "ret_pivot": 53.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -6.2, "ret_120": -24.1, "ret_250": 10.3, "mdd_250": -31.4, "vol_250": 46.9, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 45 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 124 亿,经营现金流/市值 23.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 72%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.8%(经营现金流/市值 23.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 72%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.0 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "天富能源:PE 比行业中位高 17.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}