{"F": {"ts_code": "600508.SH", "name": "上海能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010829", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.22, "pe_ttm": 38.0295, "pb": 0.8843, "dv_ttm": 1.9099, "total_mv": 1135245.4344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.0, 20.7, 34.5, 22.6, 21.5, 14.0], "rev_series": [76.5, 101.6, 126.3, 109.8, 94.9, 76.8], "np_series": [6.7, 3.7, 17.4, 9.7, 7.2, 2.2], "roe_series": [6.6, 3.6, 15.4, 7.8, 5.6, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 86.3, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 14.4, "fcf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 12.7, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 10.5, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 68.3, "fix_assets": 148.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.88, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 32.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 41.7, "debt_mv": 28.9, "payout": 40.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -15.3, "np_cagr3": -49.8, "rev_yoy": 27.2, "np_yoy": 38.0, "np_vol": 165.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 136.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["煤炭销售", 29.0], ["煤炭", 29.0], ["电力生产", 12.0], ["电力", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.2, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": 35.9, "ret_pivot": 50.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 31.1, "ret_60": 24.9, "ret_120": 15.7, "ret_250": 29.2, "mdd_250": -29.8, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 92.2}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 52}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 148 亿,占总资产 68%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:焦煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.4%,股息率 1.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 87%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 68%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 12.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 68%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.0 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 25% / 16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "上海能源:PE 比行业中位高 12.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.8个百分点。"]}}