{"F": {"ts_code": "600507.SH", "name": "方大特钢", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030930", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.26, "pe_ttm": 13.2174, "pb": 0.9945, "dv_ttm": 4.5932, "total_mv": 985418.0454, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 20.0, 8.4, 6.4, 4.8, 9.7], "rev_series": [166.0, 216.8, 232.4, 265.1, 215.6, 182.3], "np_series": [21.4, 27.3, 9.3, 6.9, 2.5, 9.4], "roe_series": [27.4, 29.4, 10.3, 7.8, 2.7, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 175.7, "np_ttm": 7.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": -14.3, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 34.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.99, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 14.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 61.3, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 49.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.8, "np_cagr3": 0.6, "rev_yoy": -7.6, "np_yoy": -48.6, "np_vol": 130.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 8.8, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["特钢业分部", 33.0], ["钢材销售", 27.0], ["其他销售", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.1, "ret_prev2_year": -10.8, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": 25.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.5, "ret_60": 0.7, "ret_120": -35.6, "ret_250": -24.3, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 36.0, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 21, "hard": 21, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 49%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 -7.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.2 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "方大特钢:PE 比行业中位低 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.4个百分点。"]}}