{"F": {"ts_code": "600505.SH", "name": "西昌电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020530", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.6, "pe_ttm": 253.5472, "pb": 3.1441, "dv_ttm": 0.2358, "total_mv": 386441.55, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 20.6, 20.8, 13.8, 19.6, 18.2], "rev_series": [9.6, 10.8, 12.8, 14.0, 14.5, 15.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, -0.4, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.9, 3.5, 3.6, -3.6, 0.7, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 19.6, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 84.1, "fix_assets": 32.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.14, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 16.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 64.7, "debt_mv": 43.0, "payout": 82.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.6, "np_cagr3": -35.9, "rev_yoy": -5.3, "np_yoy": 102.7, "np_vol": 105.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力供应业", 45.0], ["电力供应", 45.0], ["电力", 3.0], ["水电生产", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.2, "ret_prev2_year": 43.0, "ret_ytd": -18.7, "ret_pivot": 25.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -28.5, "ret_120": -28.3, "ret_250": -26.2, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 39.3, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 100, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 253.5 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%、固定资产占比 84%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 84%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 84%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 253.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -28% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "西昌电力:PE 比行业中位高 225.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.4个百分点。"]}}