{"F": {"ts_code": "600500.SH", "name": "中化国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9005, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1934097.0957, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.1, 10.1, 8.7, 4.7, 2.3, 3.4], "rev_series": [541.6, 806.5, 874.5, 542.7, 529.3, 473.4], "np_series": [3.1, 21.8, 13.1, -18.5, -28.4, -22.2], "roe_series": [2.4, 17.3, 8.6, -11.0, -20.2, -19.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 465.2, "np_ttm": -16.2, "ocf_ttm": 26.0, "fcf_ttm": 15.6, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 13.4, "gm_median": 4.7, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": -3.4, "roe_median": -11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 252.3, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 243.5, "debt_ebitda": 10.9, "debt_ratio": 70.3, "debt_mv": 125.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -18.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.4, "np_yoy": 68.3, "np_vol": 288.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化工新材料及中间体", 25.0], ["中间体及高性能材料", 25.0], ["化工材料营销", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.0, "ret_ytd": 37.5, "ret_pivot": 46.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -25.2, "ret_120": 9.6, "ret_250": 25.3, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 55.3, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 20, "hard": 78, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 36%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 13.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -25% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "中化国际:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点。"]}}