{"F": {"ts_code": "600499.SH", "name": "科达制造", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021010", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.59, "pe_ttm": 15.1397, "pb": 2.1111, "dv_ttm": 2.0562, "total_mv": 2798152.4876, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.1, 26.0, 29.4, 29.2, 26.0, 27.9], "rev_series": [73.9, 98.0, 111.6, 97.0, 126.0, 173.9], "np_series": [2.8, 10.1, 42.5, 20.9, 10.1, 13.1], "roe_series": [5.4, 15.7, 46.6, 18.4, 8.8, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 195.9, "np_ttm": 18.5, "ocf_ttm": 25.2, "fcf_ttm": 14.3, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 6.3, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.4, "fix_assets": 79.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.7, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 1.32, "interest_debt": 64.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 45.9, "debt_mv": 23.0, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.9, "np_cagr3": -32.5, "rev_yoy": 26.9, "np_yoy": 72.4, "np_vol": 163.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.6, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 10.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["海外建材", 22.0], ["建材机械", 14.0], ["锂电池材料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.9, "ret_prev2_year": -24.9, "ret_ytd": 7.5, "ret_pivot": 126.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": 26.3, "mdd_250": -33.0, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 58, "hard": 41, "bondness": 34}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 72%,PE TTM 15.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 10.5 倍,PEG 0.81。", "自由现金流 14.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 13%(7 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.1 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -0% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "科达制造:PE 比行业中位低 27.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}