{"F": {"ts_code": "600498.SH", "name": "烽火通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.8, "pe_ttm": 150.0845, "pb": 2.9168, "dv_ttm": 0.2566, "total_mv": 5133873.15, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.8, 21.7, 22.0, 20.6, 21.2, 21.1], "rev_series": [210.7, 263.1, 309.2, 311.3, 285.5, 249.2], "np_series": [1.0, 2.9, 4.1, 5.1, 7.0, 4.4], "roe_series": [0.9, 2.5, 3.4, 4.0, 5.2, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 261.8, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 58.9, "fcf_ttm": 41.6, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 51.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 2.24, "interest_debt": 125.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 61.3, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": 29.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": 2.4, "rev_yoy": 11.3, "np_yoy": -32.7, "np_vol": 72.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 35.7, "fwd_pe2": 27.9, "fwd_g1": 321.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["通信系统设备", 27.0], ["通信系统", 27.0], ["光纤线缆", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.7, "ret_prev2_year": 18.2, "ret_ytd": 18.2, "ret_pivot": 160.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -37.9, "ret_120": -27.7, "ret_250": 34.1, "mdd_250": -62.1, "vol_250": 73.0, "pos_52w": 44.7}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 53, "hard": 17, "bondness": 47}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 150.1 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 35.7 倍,次年 27.9 倍,PEG 1.28。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 150.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -38% / -28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "烽火通信:PE 比行业中位高 65.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}