{"F": {"ts_code": "600497.SH", "name": "驰宏锌锗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.84, "pe_ttm": 29.2893, "pb": 2.791, "dv_ttm": 1.0163, "total_mv": 4959734.412, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.3, 16.6, 15.9, 16.1, 17.7, 15.8], "rev_series": [191.6, 217.2, 219.0, 219.5, 188.0, 240.6], "np_series": [4.7, 5.8, 6.7, 14.3, 12.9, 10.4], "roe_series": [3.2, 4.0, 4.5, 9.3, 8.1, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 273.2, "np_ttm": 16.9, "ocf_ttm": 38.8, "fcf_ttm": 24.9, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 96.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.79, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 22.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 25.9, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 49.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": 15.6, "rev_yoy": 30.8, "np_yoy": 70.6, "np_vol": 47.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 22.1, "fwd_pe2": 19.1, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铅锌采选冶", 37.0], ["其他", 13.0], ["有色金属贸易", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.6, "ret_prev2_year": 14.1, "ret_ytd": 35.9, "ret_pivot": 118.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": 16.6, "ret_120": 0.3, "ret_250": 64.8, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 57.6, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 70, "hard": 56, "bondness": 42}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 96 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铅锌 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 5.0%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.3 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 65%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 17% / 0%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "驰宏锌锗:PE 比行业中位高 8.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}