{"F": {"ts_code": "600495.SH", "name": "晋西车轴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.16, "pe_ttm": 145.1591, "pb": 1.5325, "dv_ttm": 0.4327, "total_mv": 502607.4144, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.1, 12.7, 11.2, 13.6, 11.9, 13.3], "rev_series": [11.4, 12.1, 12.5, 12.8, 13.1, 13.0], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [0.6, 0.3, 0.3, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.4, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 20.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 70.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": 39.8, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 42.3, "np_vol": 45.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铁路车辆", 33.0], ["车辆产品-分部", 33.0], ["车轴产品-分部", 21.0], ["车轴", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.4, "ret_prev2_year": -11.0, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 24.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.5, "ret_60": 12.4, "ret_120": -12.5, "ret_250": -27.9, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 28.7, "pos_52w": 73.3}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 43, "hard": 36, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 145.2 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%、固定资产占比 22%、资产负债率 20%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 145.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 12% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "晋西车轴:PE 比行业中位高 119.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}