{"F": {"ts_code": "600493.SH", "name": "凤竹纺织", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "棉纺", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.38, "pe_ttm": 191.6092, "pb": 1.552, "dv_ttm": 0.2821, "total_mv": 173536.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.3, 15.8, 12.2, 12.3, 12.0, 13.8], "rev_series": [10.5, 13.0, 11.5, 10.0, 9.3, 9.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.7, 0.3, 2.7, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [3.9, 9.1, 3.1, 27.9, 4.8, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.9, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 40.6, "debt_mv": 15.7, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.1, "np_cagr3": -15.5, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": -83.7, "np_vol": 395.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["染整成品", 36.0], ["纺纱", 5.0], ["染整加工", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": -22.2, "ret_ytd": -13.3, "ret_pivot": 51.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": -6.2, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 43.0, "pos_52w": 74.9}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 41, "hard": 69, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 191.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 7% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "凤竹纺织:PE 比行业中位高 168.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}