{"F": {"ts_code": "600491.SH", "name": "ST龙元", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "房屋建设Ⅱ", "sw3": "房屋建设Ⅲ", "ind": "房屋建设Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040524", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3898, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 244761.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.8, 16.4, 15.6, 16.8, 20.6, 8.5], "rev_series": [177.9, 195.5, 142.5, 90.0, 91.2, 44.3], "np_series": [8.1, 6.7, 3.8, -13.1, -6.6, -25.9], "roe_series": [7.4, 5.7, 3.1, -11.4, -6.3, -30.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.2, "np_ttm": -34.6, "ocf_ttm": 26.1, "fcf_ttm": 25.4, "fcf_yield": 103.7, "ocf_yield": 106.7, "gm_median": 16.4, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 4.7, "npm_median": -6.7, "roe_median": -6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.5, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.39, "capex_dep": 2.24, "interest_debt": 213.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 84.4, "debt_mv": 872.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -32.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -26.9, "np_yoy": -1243.5, "np_vol": 187.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["PPP项目投资", 17.0], ["装饰与钢结构", 16.0], ["土建施工", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -29.4, "ret_prev2_year": -5.1, "ret_ytd": -39.4, "ret_pivot": -37.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 30.1, "ret_60": 25.0, "ret_120": -48.7, "ret_250": -57.8, "mdd_250": -75.5, "vol_250": 55.0, "pos_52w": 42.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 2, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -34.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 214 亿,经营现金流/市值 106.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 103.7%(经营现金流/市值 106.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -58%,最大回撤 -76%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 30% / 25% / -49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房屋建设Ⅱ」8 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 8.9% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 34%。", "ST龙元:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}