{"F": {"ts_code": "600490.SH", "name": "鹏欣资源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.72, "pe_ttm": 55.3451, "pb": 2.6853, "dv_ttm": 0.4016, "total_mv": 1708348.8412, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.2, 6.6, 5.7, 6.6, 4.6, 23.8], "rev_series": [87.1, 85.9, 83.5, 53.7, 51.3, 34.1], "np_series": [4.6, 0.7, -6.2, -1.1, -1.0, 2.3], "roe_series": [7.1, 1.2, -10.1, -1.8, -1.6, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.3, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 11.2, "fcf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 6.6, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": -0.09, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": -3.8, "roe_median": -1.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 37.2, "fix_assets": 28.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 21.7, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -25.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 59.6, "np_yoy": 58.8, "np_vol": 432.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["工业收入", 33.0], ["工业", 33.0], ["贸易", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 136.2, "ret_prev2_year": 10.1, "ret_ytd": 0.3, "ret_pivot": 174.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 16.8, "ret_120": -10.6, "ret_250": 31.8, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 59.0, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 70, "hard": 60, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 55 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 37%、毛利率 6.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 -9%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.3 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 32%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 17% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "鹏欣资源:PE 比行业中位高 34.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点。"]}}