{"F": {"ts_code": "600489.SH", "name": "中金黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030814", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.6, "pe_ttm": 18.8143, "pb": 3.8187, "dv_ttm": 1.7891, "total_mv": 12409120.256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.9, 11.5, 11.7, 13.3, 15.2, 16.7], "rev_series": [480.0, 561.0, 571.5, 612.6, 655.6, 790.7], "np_series": [15.5, 17.0, 21.2, 29.8, 33.9, 49.3], "roe_series": [8.4, 7.0, 8.3, 11.5, 12.7, 17.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 869.9, "np_ttm": 66.0, "ocf_ttm": 99.1, "fcf_ttm": 70.5, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 13.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 185.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.82, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 203.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 16.4, "payout": 55.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.4, "np_cagr3": 32.6, "rev_yoy": 22.6, "np_yoy": 61.7, "np_vol": 18.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.9, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["冶炼-分部", 46.0], ["矿山-分部", 16.0], ["其他-分部", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.8, "ret_prev2_year": 28.4, "ret_ytd": 11.8, "ret_pivot": 105.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 26.8, "ret_120": -15.5, "ret_250": 74.2, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 57.4, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 70, "hard": 41, "bondness": 43}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 62%,PE TTM 18.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 13.4 倍,PEG 0.58。", "自由现金流 70.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(12 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 13.3%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.8 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 74%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 27% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "中金黄金:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}