{"F": {"ts_code": "600481.SH", "name": "双良节能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "硅料硅片", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.21, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1856, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 869028.7473, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.5, 27.8, 16.5, 14.7, -2.2, 4.6], "rev_series": [20.7, 38.3, 144.8, 231.5, 130.4, 75.7], "np_series": [1.4, 3.1, 9.6, 15.0, -21.3, -11.2], "roe_series": [6.1, 13.5, 20.7, 21.6, -36.0, -26.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.5, "np_ttm": -12.8, "ocf_ttm": 21.5, "fcf_ttm": 14.3, "fcf_yield": 16.4, "ocf_yield": 24.7, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 10.4, "gm_stab": 0.3, "gm_chg_2022": -13.0, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.7, "fix_assets": 123.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 88.4, "debt_ebitda": 45.4, "debt_ratio": 80.9, "debt_mv": 101.7, "payout": 39.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -19.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -30.0, "np_yoy": -28.3, "np_vol": 152.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["光伏产品", 26.0], ["节能节水装备", 14.0], ["节能节水系统", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.9, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": -35.6, "ret_pivot": 19.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": -43.5, "ret_250": -34.7, "mdd_250": -66.7, "vol_250": 61.0, "pos_52w": 37.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 92, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 45.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 30%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.4%(经营现金流/市值 24.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 30%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -67%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -18% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "双良节能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.1个百分点。"]}}