{"F": {"ts_code": "600480.SH", "name": "凌云股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030815", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.23, "pe_ttm": 14.2408, "pb": 1.2473, "dv_ttm": 4.8604, "total_mv": 1005893.0679, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 16.1, 14.8, 16.3, 17.6, 16.6], "rev_series": [135.4, 157.5, 166.9, 187.0, 188.4, 198.4], "np_series": [1.0, 2.8, 3.4, 6.3, 6.6, 8.4], "roe_series": [2.2, 5.8, 6.0, 9.4, 9.1, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 202.5, "np_ttm": 7.1, "ocf_ttm": 20.2, "fcf_ttm": 14.9, "fcf_yield": 14.9, "ocf_yield": 20.1, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.2, "fix_assets": 46.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.25, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 19.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 50.3, "debt_mv": 19.2, "payout": 72.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": 35.1, "rev_yoy": 4.5, "np_yoy": -29.7, "np_vol": 61.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 12.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["汽车零部件分部", 32.0], ["汽车金属及塑料零部件", 32.0], ["塑料管道系统", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.0, "ret_prev2_year": 25.8, "ret_ytd": -31.4, "ret_pivot": 55.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -14.1, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -40.7, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 47, "hard": 36, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 72%、股息率 4.9%、营收 3 年复合 5.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.9%(经营现金流/市值 20.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.2 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -14% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "凌云股份:PE 比行业中位低 16.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}