{"F": {"ts_code": "600479.SH", "name": "千金药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.15, "pe_ttm": 19.0698, "pb": 2.1417, "dv_ttm": 2.8897, "total_mv": 647256.15, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.0, 44.5, 43.1, 46.1, 46.4, 48.8], "rev_series": [36.3, 36.6, 40.3, 38.0, 36.3, 36.3], "np_series": [3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.2, 2.3, 2.9], "roe_series": [13.4, 13.7, 13.9, 13.9, 9.5, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.3, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 46.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 10.2, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 33.0, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 57.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": 41.6, "np_vol": 16.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 17.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.8, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["销售商品", 40.0], ["药品批发零售", 15.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.6, "ret_prev2_year": 2.7, "ret_ytd": 34.5, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 33.5, "ret_60": 39.7, "ret_120": 24.3, "ret_250": 20.3, "mdd_250": -18.1, "vol_250": 33.0, "pos_52w": 92.2}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 63, "hard": 18, "bondness": 58}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 42%,PE TTM 19.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.1 倍,PEG 1.07。", "自由现金流 4.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 16%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.1%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.1 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -18%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 34% / 40% / 24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "千金药业:PE 比行业中位低 4.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点。"]}}