{"F": {"ts_code": "600470.SH", "name": "六国化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "磷肥及磷化工", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040305", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.05, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1806, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 315568.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.8, 14.8, 11.2, 8.1, 9.4, 4.8], "rev_series": [48.2, 59.8, 75.5, 69.3, 62.5, 64.4], "np_series": [1.7, 2.4, 1.9, 0.2, 0.3, -4.6], "roe_series": [13.2, 15.9, 11.3, 1.3, 1.4, -26.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.4, "np_ttm": -4.8, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -19.3, "fcf_yield": -61.1, "ocf_yield": -3.9, "gm_median": 9.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.0, "fix_assets": 52.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 7.35, "interest_debt": 46.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 78.7, "debt_mv": 147.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": -14.4, "np_vol": 760.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["化肥产品", 41.0], ["化工产品", 5.0], ["化工", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.5, "ret_prev2_year": -6.5, "ret_ytd": 1.2, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.3, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -29.1, "ret_250": 4.5, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 58.3, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 91, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;资产负债率 79%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.4%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -61.1%(经营现金流/市值 -3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.4%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 7.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 7% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "六国化工:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点。"]}}