{"F": {"ts_code": "600469.SH", "name": "风神股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.21, "pe_ttm": 19.4013, "pb": 0.9981, "dv_ttm": 1.9194, "total_mv": 463708.1308, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.6, 10.2, 13.9, 19.6, 17.1, 14.8], "rev_series": [55.8, 55.6, 49.9, 57.4, 67.1, 74.1], "np_series": [2.0, -1.1, 0.8, 3.5, 2.8, 2.4], "roe_series": [8.1, -3.9, 3.0, 11.3, 8.6, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 77.0, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 14.8, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 30.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 1.78, "interest_debt": 11.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 49.0, "debt_mv": 25.5, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": 40.7, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": 3.3, "np_vol": 164.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.8, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 61.0, "peg": 0.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轮胎", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.6, "ret_prev2_year": 4.9, "ret_ytd": -23.8, "ret_pivot": -3.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -6.0, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -14.2, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 33.0, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 39, "hard": 53, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "风神股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}