{"F": {"ts_code": "600468.SH", "name": "百利电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.3, "pe_ttm": 92.7967, "pb": 3.3711, "dv_ttm": 0.3968, "total_mv": 685273.239, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 25.0, 25.5, 26.8, 23.8, 20.5], "rev_series": [22.0, 23.4, 22.3, 20.4, 19.6, 22.2], "np_series": [1.1, 1.0, 1.2, 1.2, -1.1, 0.9], "roe_series": [6.3, 5.7, 6.3, 5.9, -5.5, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.6, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": -9.7, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": -26.7, "np_vol": 118.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["电磁线产品", 20.0], ["电磁线", 20.0], ["高中低压电器产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.3, "ret_prev2_year": -29.6, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 63.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": 12.4, "ret_120": -29.0, "ret_250": -7.1, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 63.3}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 52, "hard": 23, "bondness": 36}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.8 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 12% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "百利电气:PE 比行业中位高 49.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}