{"F": {"ts_code": "600461.SH", "name": "洪城环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040601", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.92, "pe_ttm": 9.8243, "pb": 1.1558, "dv_ttm": 5.2354, "total_mv": 1145467.8656, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.9, 24.2, 29.4, 30.7, 31.7, 34.1], "rev_series": [66.0, 81.7, 77.8, 80.5, 82.3, 74.9], "np_series": [6.6, 8.2, 9.5, 10.8, 11.9, 11.9], "roe_series": [13.0, 14.5, 14.6, 14.4, 13.7, 12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.0, "np_ttm": 11.7, "ocf_ttm": 21.3, "fcf_ttm": 10.6, "fcf_yield": 9.2, "ocf_yield": 18.6, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 4.6, "npm_median": 15.4, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.8, "fix_assets": 57.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 3.87, "interest_debt": 78.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 55.6, "debt_mv": 68.7, "payout": 89.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": 8.1, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": -4.5, "np_vol": 10.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 49.0, "earn_yield": 10.2, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 9.2, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 2.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["污水分部", 19.0], ["能源分部", 19.0], ["自来水分部", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.4, "ret_prev2_year": 16.1, "ret_ytd": 1.3, "ret_pivot": 14.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": 0.3, "ret_120": -6.8, "ret_250": 1.7, "mdd_250": -14.5, "vol_250": 19.5, "pos_52w": 88.7}, "S": {"duration": 22, "pricing": 57, "hard": 36, "bondness": 90}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 11个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -1.3%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 89%、股息率 5.2%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 79 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍,资产负债率 56%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 5.2% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 9.8 倍 倒过来就是 10.2% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.7%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.2%(经营现金流/市值 18.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 3.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.8 倍 粗算,约 49%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -14%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 0% / -7%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "洪城环境:PE 比行业中位低 16.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}