{"F": {"ts_code": "600458.SH", "name": "时代新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.51, "pe_ttm": 19.6996, "pb": 1.3501, "dv_ttm": 2.0025, "total_mv": 1095881.7177, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 13.7, 12.1, 16.4, 15.6, 14.6], "rev_series": [150.8, 140.5, 150.3, 175.4, 200.6, 214.7], "np_series": [3.3, 1.8, 3.6, 3.9, 4.4, 5.1], "roe_series": [7.0, 3.8, 6.9, 6.8, 7.5, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 226.8, "np_ttm": 5.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": -6.4, "fcf_yield": -5.8, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.7, "fix_assets": 47.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 1.66, "interest_debt": 27.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 66.5, "debt_mv": 24.9, "payout": 39.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.6, "np_cagr3": 12.9, "rev_yoy": 13.1, "np_yoy": 14.1, "np_vol": 45.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 16.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.3, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["风力发电分部", 23.0], ["风力发电", 23.0], ["汽车产品分部", 17.0], ["汽车", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.0, "ret_prev2_year": 44.1, "ret_ytd": -12.2, "ret_pivot": 37.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -23.6, "ret_120": -22.7, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 43, "hard": 28, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.7 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.7 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -24% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "时代新材:PE 比行业中位低 27.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}