{"F": {"ts_code": "600455.SH", "name": "博通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.79, "pe_ttm": 31.9709, "pb": 4.315, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 154833.382, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.2, 50.5, 51.2, 51.2, 51.9, 55.3], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.4, 2.4, 2.6, 2.9, 3.0], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [17.7, 16.9, 12.5, 10.5, 12.3, 14.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 51.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 69.8, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.31, "capex_dep": 10.14, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 17.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": 18.3, "rev_yoy": 4.4, "np_yoy": 13.5, "np_vol": 21.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 31.8, "fwd_pe2": 28.8, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 3.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["学费及住宿费收入", 99.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.7, "ret_prev2_year": -16.9, "ret_ytd": -4.5, "ret_pivot": 47.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -11.7, "mdd_250": -32.5, "vol_250": 30.6, "pos_52w": 83.3}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 64, "hard": 100, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.0 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%、固定资产占比 70%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 70%、毛利率 51.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(计算机)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 10.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.0 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "博通股份:PE 比行业中位低 50.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 61.0个百分点。"]}}