{"F": {"ts_code": "600452.SH", "name": "涪陵电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.05, "pe_ttm": 32.1031, "pb": 2.4313, "dv_ttm": 1.1381, "total_mv": 1390570.2385, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.6, 22.7, 22.3, 21.0, 20.4, 19.6], "rev_series": [26.5, 31.5, 35.6, 34.4, 31.2, 30.0], "np_series": [4.0, 5.1, 6.1, 5.3, 5.1, 3.9], "roe_series": [21.2, 16.8, 14.1, 11.0, 10.0, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.8, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 10.3, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 21.0, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 16.1, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.6, "fix_assets": 22.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.43, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": -13.8, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": 23.9, "np_vol": 19.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 23.4, "fwd_pe2": 20.1, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电网业务", 34.0], ["电力", 34.0], ["节能服务", 16.0], ["节能业务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.8, "ret_prev2_year": 14.4, "ret_ytd": -2.7, "ret_pivot": 6.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.5, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": -40.4, "ret_250": -22.3, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 53, "hard": 57, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.1 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.1 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -11% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "涪陵电力:PE 比行业中位高 4.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.1个百分点。"]}}