{"F": {"ts_code": "600449.SH", "name": "宁夏建材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030829", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.57, "pe_ttm": 44.7663, "pb": 0.8164, "dv_ttm": 1.2729, "total_mv": 601073.517, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.9, 24.7, 13.2, 7.0, 7.3, 13.6], "rev_series": [51.1, 57.8, 86.6, 104.1, 86.5, 51.7], "np_series": [9.6, 8.0, 5.3, 3.0, 2.4, 1.8], "roe_series": [16.2, 12.3, 7.7, 4.2, 3.3, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.0, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 12.4, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.51, "gm_chg_2022": -19.7, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.1, "fix_assets": 36.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.82, "capex_dep": 0.37, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 17.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 41.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -15.8, "np_cagr3": -29.9, "rev_yoy": -38.0, "np_yoy": -45.3, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 21.0, "fwd_pe2": 16.3, "fwd_g1": 114.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["水泥及熟料", 30.0], ["数字物流业务", 9.0], ["数字物流", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.4, "ret_ytd": 3.0, "ret_pivot": 22.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.9, "ret_60": 0.7, "ret_120": -6.7, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -27.8, "vol_250": 41.3, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 28, "hard": 63, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 51%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 51%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / 1% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "宁夏建材:PE 比行业中位高 24.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}