{"F": {"ts_code": "600448.SH", "name": "华纺股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "印染", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.03, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1299, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 190835.3691, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.7, 10.9, 9.7, 14.6, 12.9, 10.2], "rev_series": [33.4, 36.2, 34.9, 28.0, 29.3, 29.4], "np_series": [0.2, -0.6, -0.9, 0.1, -0.6, -2.6], "roe_series": [1.2, -4.1, -6.6, 0.8, -4.5, -24.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.9, "np_ttm": -2.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 10.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": -1.9, "roe_median": -4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.9, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 12.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 72.9, "debt_mv": 66.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.7, "np_yoy": -26.9, "np_vol": 282.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": 45.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.2, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -12.2, "ret_250": -13.2, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 35.8, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 49, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点;资产负债率 73%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 4% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "华纺股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点。"]}}