{"F": {"ts_code": "600446.SH", "name": "金证股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.18, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9335, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1052337.065, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 19.6, 22.3, 23.8, 23.2, 39.3], "rev_series": [56.4, 66.5, 64.8, 62.2, 46.9, 24.2], "np_series": [3.6, 2.5, 2.7, 3.7, -2.0, -1.7], "roe_series": [16.9, 8.6, 7.4, 9.7, -5.4, -4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": -6.7, "fcf_ttm": -6.9, "fcf_yield": -6.5, "ocf_yield": -6.4, "gm_median": 23.2, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 13.0, "debt_ebitda": 39.1, "debt_ratio": 37.1, "debt_mv": 12.4, "payout": 15.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -28.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.4, "np_yoy": 132.4, "np_vol": 68.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 164.4, "fwd_pe2": 82.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 1.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["定制化服务", 18.0], ["软件收入", 14.0], ["软件业务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.7, "ret_prev2_year": 49.8, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 13.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -20.3, "ret_250": -49.8, "mdd_250": -56.5, "vol_250": 39.4, "pos_52w": 49.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 1, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.5%(经营现金流/市值 -6.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -0% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "金证股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}