{"F": {"ts_code": "600438.SH", "name": "通威股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "硅料硅片", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5888, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5127767.6351, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 27.7, 38.2, 26.4, 6.4, 2.7], "rev_series": [442.0, 634.9, 1424.2, 1391.0, 919.9, 841.3], "np_series": [36.1, 82.1, 257.3, 135.7, -70.4, -95.5], "roe_series": [15.0, 24.1, 52.3, 22.2, -12.8, -21.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 779.8, "np_ttm": -97.2, "ocf_ttm": 34.4, "fcf_ttm": -77.0, "fcf_yield": -15.0, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 13.5, "gm_stab": 0.49, "gm_chg_2022": 21.1, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 22.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.4, "fix_assets": 959.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 0.95, "interest_debt": 943.5, "debt_ebitda": 17.7, "debt_ratio": 75.2, "debt_mv": 184.0, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -16.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.2, "np_yoy": -3.3, "np_vol": 132.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 62.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["光伏相关产品", 19.0], ["光伏业务", 19.0], ["饲料、食品相关产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.2, "ret_prev2_year": -8.4, "ret_ytd": -44.5, "ret_pivot": -34.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -19.8, "ret_120": -41.0, "ret_250": -47.2, "mdd_250": -61.4, "vol_250": 43.7, "pos_52w": 41.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 85, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -97.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 75%,有息负债 944 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 49%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 49%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 21.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -20% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "通威股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.8个百分点。"]}}