{"F": {"ts_code": "600435.SH", "name": "北方导航", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030704", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.59, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.1786, "dv_ttm": 0.2157, "total_mv": 1752822.5743, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 20.7, 21.6, 24.8, 22.6, 15.7], "rev_series": [30.1, 39.9, 38.4, 35.6, 27.5, 41.9], "np_series": [0.6, 1.3, 1.9, 1.9, 0.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [2.9, 5.9, 7.7, 7.4, 2.2, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.2, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 9.8, "fcf_ttm": 8.7, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.8, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 6.18, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 51.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -13.3, "rev_yoy": -45.4, "np_yoy": -141.1, "np_vol": 67.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 116.9, "fwd_pe2": 85.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 3.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["军民两用产品", 33.0], ["军品分部", 33.0], ["民品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.5, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -24.7, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.2, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -30.1, "mdd_250": -55.5, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 53.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 19, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -2% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "北方导航:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点。"]}}