{"F": {"ts_code": "600433.SH", "name": "冠豪高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.323, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 588093.8112, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 18.7, 14.2, 6.4, 9.4, 4.9], "rev_series": [24.4, 74.0, 80.9, 74.0, 75.9, 71.5], "np_series": [1.8, 1.4, 3.9, -0.5, 1.8, -3.0], "roe_series": [6.5, 3.5, 7.5, -0.9, 4.0, -6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 9.6, "gm_median": 9.4, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.46, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.9, "fix_assets": 56.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 3.03, "interest_debt": 37.9, "debt_ebitda": 39.7, "debt_ratio": 46.7, "debt_mv": 64.4, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": 467.3, "np_vol": 266.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": -8.5, "ret_ytd": 2.4, "ret_pivot": 29.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": 5.3, "mdd_250": -40.9, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 65.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 25, "hard": 80, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 39.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.4%,稳定度 46%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.4%,稳定度 46%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 3.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -2% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "冠豪高新:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}