{"F": {"ts_code": "600429.SH", "name": "三元股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.44, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 703851.978, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 25.5, 25.6, 23.0, 22.9, 22.1], "rev_series": [73.5, 77.3, 80.0, 78.4, 70.1, 63.4], "np_series": [0.2, 2.5, 0.4, 2.4, 0.5, -2.3], "roe_series": [0.4, 4.9, 0.7, 4.8, 1.1, -4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.8, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.44, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 20.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 44.5, "debt_mv": 29.5, "payout": 32.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 531.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 22.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["液态奶", 24.0], ["冰淇淋及其他", 13.0], ["冰淇淋", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.0, "ret_prev2_year": -0.3, "ret_ytd": -9.3, "ret_pivot": 27.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": -13.9, "ret_250": -1.9, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 30, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 21 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 8% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "三元股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点。"]}}