{"F": {"ts_code": "600428.SH", "name": "中远海特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.66, "pe_ttm": 13.7528, "pb": 1.8804, "dv_ttm": 2.7873, "total_mv": 3199411.1864, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 21.9, 22.0, 17.7, 21.8, 21.2], "rev_series": [70.4, 87.5, 122.1, 120.1, 167.8, 232.1], "np_series": [1.3, 3.0, 8.2, 10.6, 15.3, 17.8], "roe_series": [1.3, 3.1, 8.1, 9.6, 12.7, 12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 268.8, "np_ttm": 23.3, "ocf_ttm": 74.6, "fcf_ttm": 56.7, "fcf_yield": 17.7, "ocf_yield": 23.3, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 7.0, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.7, "fix_assets": 153.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 176.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 57.8, "debt_mv": 55.1, "payout": 47.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.9, "np_cagr3": 29.4, "rev_yoy": 34.1, "np_yoy": 66.2, "np_vol": 63.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 12.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["纸浆船", 12.0], ["新型多用途船", 12.0], ["汽车船", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.2, "ret_prev2_year": 48.5, "ret_ytd": 72.1, "ret_pivot": 123.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 55.4, "ret_120": 45.8, "ret_250": 82.6, "mdd_250": -22.9, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 96.4}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 54, "hard": 54, "bondness": 40}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 66%,PE TTM 13.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.1 倍,PEG 0.93。", "自由现金流 56.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 13%(10 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 17.7%(经营现金流/市值 23.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.8 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 83%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 55% / 46%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "中远海特:PE 比行业中位低 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点。"]}}