{"F": {"ts_code": "600426.SH", "name": "华鲁恒升", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "氮肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020620", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.83, "pe_ttm": 13.9724, "pb": 1.6398, "dv_ttm": 1.8474, "total_mv": 5728131.269, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 35.5, 28.9, 20.9, 18.7, 19.2], "rev_series": [131.1, 266.4, 302.5, 272.6, 342.3, 309.7], "np_series": [18.0, 72.5, 62.9, 35.8, 39.0, 33.2], "roe_series": [12.1, 38.5, 25.6, 12.8, 13.0, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 323.7, "np_ttm": 41.0, "ocf_ttm": 45.6, "fcf_ttm": 12.7, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 7.6, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 68.3, "fix_assets": 353.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 110.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 27.5, "debt_mv": 19.3, "payout": 35.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": -19.2, "rev_yoy": 8.9, "np_yoy": 50.0, "np_vol": 128.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.2, "consensus_n": 31, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源新材料相关产品", 30.0], ["新材料产品", 30.0], ["肥料", 12.0], ["化学肥料", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.8, "ret_prev2_year": -19.6, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 39.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -34.2, "ret_250": 5.9, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 41.7, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 46, "hard": 100, "bondness": 46}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 50%,PE TTM 14.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 10.7 倍,PEG 0.76。", "自由现金流 12.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 14%(31 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 68%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 68%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.0 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 2% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "华鲁恒升:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.7个百分点。"]}}