{"F": {"ts_code": "600423.SH", "name": "*ST柳化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030717", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.86, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.2228, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 228426.77, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 23.0, 19.1, 20.4, 21.3, 5.9], "rev_series": [1.1, 1.1, 1.3, 1.3, 1.6, 1.4], "np_series": [0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.7, 0.3, -0.3], "roe_series": [3.3, 7.1, 3.7, 15.5, 5.7, -4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.5, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 20.4, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 18.3, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.22, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 9.8, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": 312.0, "np_vol": 189.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["直销", 29.0], ["经销", 21.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.5, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -23.1, "ret_pivot": 26.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": 15.3, "ret_120": -30.6, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 63.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 18, "bondness": 19}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 15% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "*ST柳化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 36.1个百分点。"]}}