{"F": {"ts_code": "600419.SH", "name": "天润乳业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.12, "pe_ttm": 24.4708, "pb": 1.1624, "dv_ttm": 0.2193, "total_mv": 287749.95, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 16.3, 17.9, 19.1, 16.8, 16.1], "rev_series": [17.7, 21.1, 24.1, 27.1, 28.0, 27.5], "np_series": [1.5, 1.5, 2.0, 1.4, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [11.4, 7.9, 8.7, 6.0, 1.8, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 7.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 24.9, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.0, "fix_assets": 29.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 14.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 51.9, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": -40.5, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 348.2, "np_vol": 33.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 17.2, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 49.0], ["常温乳制品", 28.0], ["低温乳制品", 19.0], ["畜牧业产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.6, "ret_prev2_year": -19.8, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 30.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 15.3, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": -19.2, "mdd_250": -33.4, "vol_250": 28.1, "pos_52w": 81.0}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 46, "hard": 85, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 24.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.5 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 15% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "天润乳业:PE 比行业中位低 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.3个百分点。"]}}