{"F": {"ts_code": "600418.SH", "name": "江淮汽车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载货车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.62, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.7446, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4648115.4484, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 8.2, 8.4, 11.3, 10.5, 12.3], "rev_series": [428.3, 402.1, 364.9, 449.4, 421.2, 464.8], "np_series": [1.4, 2.0, -15.8, 1.5, -17.8, -17.0], "roe_series": [1.1, 1.4, -11.0, 1.1, -14.5, -16.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 492.5, "np_ttm": -16.8, "ocf_ttm": 12.5, "fcf_ttm": -10.9, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 10.5, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": -3.8, "roe_median": -11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 104.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.74, "capex_dep": 1.9, "interest_debt": 71.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 72.5, "debt_mv": 15.4, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 8.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": 3.1, "np_vol": 570.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 38.5, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 342.0, "peg": 0.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商用车(载货汽车、多功能商用车)", 31.0], ["商用车", 31.0], ["乘用车", 18.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.0, "ret_prev2_year": 132.5, "ret_ytd": -58.3, "ret_pivot": -5.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.5, "ret_60": -34.1, "ret_120": -57.9, "ret_250": -60.7, "mdd_250": -66.2, "vol_250": 44.8, "pos_52w": 35.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 35, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -16.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 71 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -61%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 36%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -34% / -58%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "江淮汽车:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}