{"F": {"ts_code": "600416.SH", "name": "湘电股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020718", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.65, "pe_ttm": 267.64, "pb": 1.3166, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1276551.776, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 19.1, 24.1, 21.4, 17.6, 12.6], "rev_series": [47.0, 40.3, 44.5, 45.6, 47.0, 48.9], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 2.6, 3.0, 2.5, 2.2], "roe_series": [2.8, 2.4, 4.7, 4.2, 3.4, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 10.7, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.5, "fix_assets": 19.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 1.93, "interest_debt": 9.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 41.4, "debt_mv": 7.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -4.2, "rev_yoy": -11.8, "np_yoy": -94.0, "np_vol": 89.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 40.5, "fwd_pe2": 30.5, "fwd_g1": 560.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.8, "ret_prev2_year": -28.9, "ret_ytd": -45.2, "ret_pivot": -3.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": -9.4, "ret_120": -38.5, "ret_250": -50.3, "mdd_250": -52.6, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 49.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 18, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 267.6 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 40.5 倍,次年 30.5 倍,PEG 1.23。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 267.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -9% / -38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "湘电股份:PE 比行业中位高 221.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}