{"F": {"ts_code": "600415.SH", "name": "小商品城", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "商业物业经营", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.12, "pe_ttm": 16.0168, "pb": 3.2551, "dv_ttm": 3.811, "total_mv": 7194429.6704, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.4, 33.3, 15.3, 26.5, 31.4, 31.4], "rev_series": [37.3, 60.3, 76.2, 113.0, 157.4, 199.3], "np_series": [9.3, 13.3, 11.0, 26.8, 30.7, 42.0], "roe_series": [7.0, 9.5, 7.4, 16.2, 16.1, 19.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 225.0, "np_ttm": 44.9, "ocf_ttm": 90.2, "fcf_ttm": 45.3, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 12.5, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -36.1, "npm_median": 21.2, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 79.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.26, "capex_dep": 6.1, "interest_debt": 32.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 58.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 37.8, "np_cagr3": 56.1, "rev_yoy": 33.3, "np_yoy": 17.0, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 28, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["销售商品", 21.0], ["商品销售", 21.0], ["小商品城市场商位使用及其经营配套服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.8, "ret_prev2_year": 100.0, "ret_ytd": -15.1, "ret_pivot": 69.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 24.7, "ret_120": -1.7, "ret_250": -41.7, "mdd_250": -55.6, "vol_250": 39.3, "pos_52w": 59.6}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 47, "hard": 29, "bondness": 45}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 37.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 12.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -36.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 6.10 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.0 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 25% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "小商品城:PE 比行业中位低 44.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}