{"F": {"ts_code": "600410.SH", "name": "华胜天成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.8232, "dv_ttm": 0.0522, "total_mv": 1592110.3044, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 12.0, 13.0, 13.1, 13.1, 12.0], "rev_series": [39.0, 38.0, 40.7, 41.6, 42.7, 46.6], "np_series": [1.3, 0.2, -3.2, -2.2, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [2.7, 0.5, -7.1, -5.0, 0.6, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.0, "np_ttm": -3.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.8, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.82, "capex_dep": 1.7, "interest_debt": 18.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.9, "debt_mv": 11.4, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": -275.3, "np_vol": 610.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 147.3, "ret_prev2_year": 7.8, "ret_ytd": -18.8, "ret_pivot": 226.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -15.7, "ret_120": -49.2, "ret_250": -37.5, "mdd_250": -60.6, "vol_250": 69.9, "pos_52w": 44.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 8, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -16% / -49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "华胜天成:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}