{"F": {"ts_code": "600406.SH", "name": "国电南瑞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.71, "pe_ttm": 21.7158, "pb": 3.5027, "dv_ttm": 2.7236, "total_mv": 18240118.3302, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 26.9, 27.0, 26.8, 26.7, 25.8], "rev_series": [385.0, 424.1, 468.3, 515.7, 574.2, 662.3], "np_series": [48.5, 56.4, 64.5, 71.8, 76.1, 82.8], "roe_series": [15.0, 15.6, 16.0, 16.0, 15.8, 16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 697.5, "np_ttm": 84.0, "ocf_ttm": 105.5, "fcf_ttm": 84.2, "fcf_yield": 4.6, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 26.8, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 16.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.3, "fix_assets": 87.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.5, "capex_dep": 2.87, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 40.4, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.2, "np_cagr3": 8.7, "rev_yoy": 14.5, "np_yoy": 4.1, "np_vol": 3.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 19.9, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["电网智能", 19.0], ["智能电网", 19.0], ["能源低碳", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.9, "ret_prev2_year": 17.4, "ret_ytd": 3.2, "ret_pivot": -7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": 4.9, "mdd_250": -30.2, "vol_250": 27.9, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 55, "hard": 15, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.7 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.7 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "国电南瑞:PE 比行业中位低 21.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}