{"F": {"ts_code": "600399.SH", "name": "抚顺特钢", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.48, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6795, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 883500.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.0, 20.1, 14.7, 13.5, 12.7, 0.6], "rev_series": [62.7, 74.1, 78.1, 85.7, 84.8, 77.8], "np_series": [5.5, 7.8, 2.0, 3.6, 1.1, -8.0], "roe_series": [11.6, 14.4, 3.3, 5.8, 1.7, -13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 81.6, "np_ttm": -7.8, "ocf_ttm": -13.0, "fcf_ttm": -15.5, "fcf_yield": -17.5, "ocf_yield": -14.7, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.53, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.5, "fix_assets": 59.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.68, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 39.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 58.5, "debt_mv": 44.7, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.8, "np_yoy": 9.1, "np_vol": 332.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["合金结构钢", 18.0], ["不锈钢", 16.0], ["高温钢", 15.0], ["高温合金", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.0, "ret_prev2_year": -40.1, "ret_ytd": -23.3, "ret_pivot": -8.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -34.1, "ret_250": -21.0, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 57.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 74, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点;资产负债率 58%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.5%(经营现金流/市值 -14.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "抚顺特钢:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}