{"F": {"ts_code": "600395.SH", "name": "盘江股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010531", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.36, "pe_ttm": 28.9092, "pb": 1.0847, "dv_ttm": 1.1194, "total_mv": 1150590.9464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.8, 34.6, 40.6, 29.2, 26.0, 26.2], "rev_series": [64.8, 97.3, 118.4, 94.0, 89.0, 97.6], "np_series": [8.6, 11.7, 21.9, 7.3, 1.0, 3.3], "roe_series": [12.0, 16.8, 23.8, 6.4, 1.0, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 94.5, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": 17.5, "fcf_ttm": -20.1, "fcf_yield": -17.5, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 29.2, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 8.7, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 65.2, "fix_assets": 321.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 3.4, "interest_debt": 280.2, "debt_ebitda": 10.6, "debt_ratio": 76.1, "debt_mv": 243.5, "payout": 81.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": -46.8, "rev_yoy": -6.0, "np_yoy": 1344.5, "np_vol": 110.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 19.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.4, "fwd_g1": 48.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["煤炭", 61.0], ["电力", 37.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["机械", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.8, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": 16.5, "ret_pivot": 13.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": 5.9, "mdd_250": -28.2, "vol_250": 35.2, "pos_52w": 85.5}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 70}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 321 亿,占总资产 65%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:焦煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -17.5%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 65%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.5%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 65%,资本开支/折旧 3.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -2% / -12%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "盘江股份:PE 比行业中位高 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点。"]}}