{"F": {"ts_code": "600391.SH", "name": "航发科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20011212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.91, "pe_ttm": 220.6965, "pb": 6.9901, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1251520.5554, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.9, 12.1, 13.1, 11.3, 16.1, 13.4], "rev_series": [27.2, 35.0, 38.0, 45.2, 38.5, 43.2], "np_series": [-0.2, 0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [-1.1, 1.4, 3.1, 3.1, 4.2, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.7, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 12.2, "fcf_ttm": 7.8, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.8, "fix_assets": 21.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.99, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 17.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 14.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 9.3, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": -40.8, "np_vol": 90.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 117.9, "fwd_pe2": 80.7, "fwd_g1": 87.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 2.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["内贸航空及衍生产品", 28.0], ["外贸转包", 14.0], ["外贸产品销售", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.9, "ret_prev2_year": 3.8, "ret_ytd": 2.2, "ret_pivot": 148.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.2, "ret_60": 19.1, "ret_120": -12.9, "ret_250": 16.3, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 61.9, "pos_52w": 67.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 40, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 220.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 220.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 19% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "航发科技:PE 比行业中位高 146.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}