{"F": {"ts_code": "600389.SH", "name": "江山股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.71, "pe_ttm": 14.8272, "pb": 1.8738, "dv_ttm": 2.9396, "total_mv": 805746.15, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 24.0, 32.0, 13.4, 14.5, 17.4], "rev_series": [51.2, 64.8, 83.5, 50.9, 54.3, 58.2], "np_series": [3.3, 8.2, 18.4, 2.8, 2.2, 5.3], "roe_series": [16.8, 37.7, 65.2, 8.2, 6.1, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.2, "np_ttm": 5.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -10.1, "fcf_yield": -12.5, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": 15.4, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 13.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.1, "fix_assets": 45.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 1.87, "capex_dep": 4.26, "interest_debt": 29.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 37.0, "payout": 51.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -11.4, "np_cagr3": -33.9, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": 3.2, "np_vol": 94.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 11.4, "fwd_pe2": 9.0, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["农药产品", 31.0], ["新材料产品", 7.0], ["化工产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 82.5, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -25.7, "ret_pivot": 60.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": -15.6, "ret_120": -40.5, "ret_250": -21.0, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 46.9, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 41, "hard": 69, "bondness": 67}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 4.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.8 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -16% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "江山股份:PE 比行业中位低 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}