{"F": {"ts_code": "600388.SH", "name": "紫金龙净", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.01, "pe_ttm": 21.9391, "pb": 2.4602, "dv_ttm": 1.7946, "total_mv": 2684770.5138, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 23.2, 23.4, 23.7, 24.8, 25.2], "rev_series": [101.8, 113.0, 118.8, 109.7, 100.2, 118.7], "np_series": [7.0, 8.6, 8.0, 5.1, 8.3, 11.1], "roe_series": [11.8, 13.2, 11.3, 6.7, 9.3, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 125.7, "np_ttm": 12.2, "ocf_ttm": 15.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 23.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.8, "fix_assets": 89.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 2.46, "capex_dep": 3.95, "interest_debt": 59.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 63.2, "debt_mv": 22.1, "payout": 42.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.0, "np_cagr3": 11.4, "rev_yoy": 15.0, "np_yoy": 25.0, "np_vol": 34.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.9, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["环保设备运输、服务边角料销售等", 29.0], ["环保设备制造", 29.0], ["新能源业务", 18.0], ["新能源", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.9, "ret_prev2_year": 0.5, "ret_ytd": 19.3, "ret_pivot": 87.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 14.3, "ret_120": 1.0, "ret_250": 55.8, "mdd_250": -28.6, "vol_250": 35.6, "pos_52w": 93.3}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 55, "hard": 48, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.9 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.95 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.9 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 56%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 14% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "紫金龙净:PE 比行业中位低 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点。"]}}