{"F": {"ts_code": "600386.SH", "name": "北巴传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车服务", "sw3": "汽车经销商", "ind": "汽车服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.56, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7521, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 287078.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.3, 20.3, 20.5, 15.4, 16.0, 13.9], "rev_series": [45.3, 43.1, 35.5, 48.3, 45.2, 39.1], "np_series": [0.7, 1.3, 0.9, 0.2, 0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [3.9, 7.3, 4.7, 0.9, 1.2, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.8, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 14.1, "ocf_yield": 17.8, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 4.2, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.0, "fix_assets": 15.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 43.5, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -32.5, "np_yoy": -500.1, "np_vol": 84.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["汽车4S店", 36.0], ["新能源充电服务", 5.0], ["充电桩服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.6, "ret_prev2_year": 0.2, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 6.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.2, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": -24.1, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 64, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.1%(经营现金流/市值 17.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 3% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车服务」10 家中位:PE 28.7 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 10.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 56%。", "北巴传媒:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点。"]}}