{"F": {"ts_code": "600379.SH", "name": "宝光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.33, "pe_ttm": 89.6503, "pb": 5.8567, "dv_ttm": 0.4341, "total_mv": 473178.8928, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 17.7, 18.5, 19.9, 19.1, 19.4], "rev_series": [9.0, 10.1, 12.3, 13.5, 14.6, 12.6], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [8.3, 8.6, 9.1, 10.4, 12.4, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.2, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 5.86, "capex_dep": 1.73, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 55.0, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": -3.8, "rev_yoy": 9.6, "np_yoy": 4.0, "np_vol": 25.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 58.9, "fwd_pe2": 35.8, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 64.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.5, "ret_prev2_year": -4.8, "ret_ytd": 23.2, "ret_pivot": 57.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 19.3, "ret_120": 10.1, "ret_250": 11.4, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 61.3, "pos_52w": 75.8}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 49, "hard": 25, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 89.7 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 58.9 倍,次年 35.8 倍,PEG 0.92。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.73 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 89.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 19% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "宝光股份:PE 比行业中位高 46.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}