{"F": {"ts_code": "600377.SH", "name": "宁沪高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.42, "pe_ttm": 13.3885, "pb": 1.5062, "dv_ttm": 3.9452, "total_mv": 6256882.395, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.7, 36.3, 33.3, 36.9, 26.3, 30.1], "rev_series": [80.3, 137.9, 132.6, 151.9, 232.0, 202.9], "np_series": [24.6, 41.8, 37.2, 44.1, 49.5, 45.9], "roe_series": [8.7, 14.3, 12.0, 13.4, 13.6, 11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 201.8, "np_ttm": 46.7, "ocf_ttm": 70.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 11.3, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": 28.3, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.2, "fix_assets": 83.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 8.86, "interest_debt": 323.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 45.6, "debt_mv": 51.7, "payout": 53.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.2, "np_cagr3": 7.2, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": 3.3, "np_vol": 29.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 13.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.6, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 4.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["建造期收入/成本", 12.0], ["不可分配项目及分部间合并抵消", 12.0], ["沪宁高速公路", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.9, "ret_prev2_year": 62.8, "ret_ytd": 6.9, "ret_pivot": -2.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": 4.5, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": -17.9, "vol_250": 18.7, "pos_52w": 92.6}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 51, "hard": 13, "bondness": 59}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 29个百分点,营收 3 年复合 15.2%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 54%、股息率 3.9%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 324 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍,资产负债率 46%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.9% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 13.4 倍 倒过来就是 7.5% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.3%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 11.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 8.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.4 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -18%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / 4%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "宁沪高速:PE 比行业中位低 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点。"]}}